Disclaimer: we don’t know anything official or have any insider sources, this is a pure guesswork based on industry observation, business and instinct, but we think Roku and HBO Max will ink a deal before Christmas 2020.
I’d say we know it will, but that just sounds too confident. I’m like 90% certain it gets done.
If this is wrong, then come back in the comments and freely say, “ha, you were wrong!”. If this prediction is right, then give us credit. It’s a fair deal for speculative results 😉
If you doubt our prediction powers (tongue firmly in cheek), then see our last prediction was 100% correct: a DRAW in the Mike Tyson Roy Jones Jr. fight (see: Tyson vs. Jones Fight Predictions – Will either win?)
We’ll dig into why this deal makes so much sense after the words of WarnerMedia CEO.
Roku has resisted adding HBO Max to its services due to what it perceives as low-ball offers. Killar, though, said the two entities have “respect” for each other and are undergoing “productive conversations.” Killar seems to be fairly confident the two sides can reach an agreement at some point. “I do have optimism that something gets done,” Killar stated.
HBO Max and Roku Have Had ‘Productive Conversations,’ WarnerMedia CEO Says
Killar wants to get the deal done. The fact that he’s telegraphing the deal is a good sign that both sides are close. Also, the fact that Roku is not trying to block HBO Max access through Apple Airplay devices. The HBO deal is up soon, also, meaning there won’t be any other way to access HBO on Roku. That’s just too much pressure for Roku to continue to hold out over “low-ball offers.”
We asked months ago for the deals to be made public (see: DEAL BREAKER? Roku asks 20% of subscription fees and 30% of ad inventory from partner channels, says Variety report) and Roku’s offer seemed very high to us. We didn’t blame WarnerMedia for balking. Still don’t really. After Amazon Fire inked a deal to have HBO Max it seemed all but certain that Roku’s bargaining chips were diminishing.
The biggest film — yes, perhaps even bigger than Tenet — of 2020 is coming Christmas day, Wonder Woman: 1984. Many people will only be able to watch this movie on HBO Max. Roku is going to want to be part of this mega advertising opportunity. They want to be able to say, “Watch Wonder Woman 1984 on HBO Max via your Roku connected device!”
Roku is feeling the pinch of not playing ball with other channels, and they should.
For a long time, we’ve thought of Roku as the streaming media king. Not just because its software is so easy to use and its devices so affordable, but also because of its popularity — the company has traditionally enjoyed a much larger share of the streaming market than its competitors. But it looks like the company’s contentious relationships with some of the biggest names in streamed entertainment may be hurting that reputation: Amazon has just announced that its Fire TV platform has hit 50 million monthly active users on its devices globally, a number that comfortably edges out Roku, which reported 46 million monthly active users in November.
Numbers don’t lie: Roku’s streaming spats have given Amazon the edge
So, there you have it, my money is on a deal being announced that on/before Christmas day a Roku HBO Max app will be available. Apparently, there is already one ready to go, the deal just needs to be signed.
Let’s see if our guess is right. Who needs insider sources anyway? What do you think?
If it does not happen, then it won’t drag too much longer into 2021. Not with all 17 Warner Bros. movies day and date releasing on HBO Max. Roku just can’t sit on the sidelines for that. No way.
The time is now Roku and WarnerMedia, the clock is almost done ticking. Put that gift under the tree. Get it done.
Movies, Movies, Movies 
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